Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health) this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability) threatens its survival (continuity). The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity. 1. Introduction Risk assessment is fundamental in the economic activities as it provide the appropriate policies and selects effective techniques to combat risk and, since risks and threats change over time, it is necessary for organizations to periodically reassess risks and reconsider whether the policies, decisions and control chosen are appropriate and effective. After identifying risks, this stage of evaluation, measurement and analysis is one of the most important since the discovery of risk, which depends both on the nature of the impact and the probability of its application, leads to the next stage of risk management arrangements in the most effective way. There are numerous and different methods and models for assessing risk impacts, determination of the magnitude of the impact of these dangerous situations on economic activity and the progress of the analysis and resources spent can vary the extent to which they have reproducible data on factors risk. In most of the literature is found the statement that once it is determined the probability of risk, one can proceed to measure it based on several numerical value known as the average dispersion, standard percentage deviation, coefficient of variation. Methods of calculation of these quantities are unambiguous [1]. But if risk factors are independent then in the relationship will interfere calculating risk probabilities of occurrence, and if risk factors are dependent, then the conditional probabilities occur, which significantly complicates the calculations in determining the overall risk to the organization concerned. The bankruptcy risk occurs when …